The GoalPost readGoalPost measured Palace slightly ahead of Liverpool on expected goals on Sunday, 2.64 to 2.46, though the scoreline went the other way.
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FROM THE JOURNALanalysisNot on the BallotFrance Football removed career achievement from the Ballon d'Or criteria four years ago. Harry Kane's journey was, officially, not on the ballot. The voters judged his season instead, and the season turned out to be the journey's closing argument.Kwabena Osei · 8 min readThe Latest
All news →Photo: Lewis Storey/Getty Images - Nov 10, 7:58 AM ETMarc Guéhi leaves the England squad injured, and Dan Burn is called upThe Manchester City defender came off at halftime of Saturday's defeat at Nottingham Forest and misses England's games against Croatia and Spain.Reporting from The Independent (via Yahoo Sports) and FourFourTwo
- Nov 10, 7:58 AM ETVirgil van Dijk and Brian Brobbey withdraw from the Netherlands squadThe Dutch federation said Van Dijk did not return fit from Liverpool's win at Crystal Palace, and no replacements will be called up.Reporting from Liverpool FC and Football Today (via Yahoo Sports)
Results in pictures
Photo: GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT/Getty Images Photo: Image Photo Agency/Getty Images Photo: Jose Manuel Alvarez Rey/Getty Images Photo: Quality Sport Images/Getty Images
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Title races
GoalPost title oddsArsenal, 79% to win the Premier League, up 6 points this week. Next likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion, 12%.Barcelona, 81% to win the La Liga, up 7 points since Sun. Next likeliest: Real Madrid, 17%.Bayern Munich, 90% to win the Bundesliga. Next likeliest: Borussia Dortmund, 7%.Paris Saint-Germain, 93% to win the Ligue 1, no change since Mon. Next likeliest: Paris FC, 2%.Flamengo, 84% to win the Brasileirão, up 1 point since Mon. Next likeliest: Palmeiras, 16%.
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The Long Memory
Spain were the best team at the World Cup, and it was not especially close. GoalPost's Team Power Rating still has Argentina first. I don't agree with it, and I'm publishing it anyway, because the reason it disagrees turns out to be four years old.
Kwabena Osei·8 min read
analysis
Plenty of Time
Kwabena Osei·11 min read
premier league
The Interlull That Wasn't
Kwabena Osei·8 min read
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Arsenal
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Won each of their last 5 Premier League matches. 1st on 27 points after 10 games.
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Week of Oct 26
The Tactics Board: the week of Oct 26
5 matches from Oct 26 to Nov 1, read from the team sheets, the events and each side's earlier matches.
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The Shape of the Week
Week of Nov 2
Fleetwood Knock Out Arsenal on Penalties
Fleetwood Town and Arsenal were level 1-1 after 90 minutes, a result GoalPost gave just a 3% chance before kickoff, and Fleetwood Town won the shootout 5-3 to reach the quarterfinals.
Since Gennaro Gattuso replaced Maurizio Sarri, Lazio have taken 2.55 points a game across 11 matches, up from 1.38 across 40 matches under the previous manager. That is about 12 more points every 10 games. Since Mario Kohnen replaced Hans Cornelis, Charleroi have taken 2.00 points a game across 13 matches, up from 1.07 across 14 matches under the previous manager. OB have had the worse of the chances across 5 recent matches, yet they have finished about 1.9 goals a game better off than those chances would suggest, and Charlotte FC have had the worse of the chances across 7 recent matches, yet they have finished about 1.7 goals a game better off than those chances would suggest.
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Week of Nov 2 · built from GoalPost's own numbers
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GoalPost Weekly
The Comeback That Changed Nothing
Manchester United produced the game of the season and went down in the table. Four-four with Aston Villa at Old Trafford — two down inside four minutes, level, two down again, and rescued at ninety plus two and ninety…
Nov 9, 2026 · 25:59
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